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EEJ MAIN Mathematics QUESTION #6985
Question 1

In a game, a player wins Rs. 100 for rolling a 5 or 6 on a fair die, and loses Rs. 50 for any other outcome. He throws the die until he gets 5 or 6, or until he has thrown at most 3 times. Find his expected gain or loss.

  • Loss of $\dfrac{400}{9}$
  • Gain of $\dfrac{400}{3}$
  • Loss of $\dfrac{400}{3}$
Correct Answer Explanation

$P(\text{win on a throw})=\frac{2}{6}=\frac{1}{3}$, $P(\text{lose})=\frac{2}{3}$.

The player stops as soon as he wins or after 3 throws.

  • Win on throw 1: prob $=\frac{1}{3}$; gain $=+100$.
  • Win on throw 2 (lost throw 1): prob $=\frac{2}{3}\cdot\frac{1}{3}=\frac{2}{9}$; net $=-50+100=+50$.
  • Win on throw 3 (lost throws 1,2): prob $=\frac{2}{3}\cdot\frac{2}{3}\cdot\frac{1}{3}=\frac{4}{27}$; net $=-100+100=0$.
  • Lose all 3 throws: prob $=\left(\frac{2}{3}\right)^3=\frac{8}{27}$; net $=-150$.

$E = \frac{1}{3}(100)+\frac{2}{9}(50)+\frac{4}{27}(0)+\frac{8}{27}(-150)$

$=\frac{100}{3}+\frac{100}{9}+0-\frac{1200}{27}$

$=\frac{900}{27}+\frac{300}{27}-\frac{1200}{27}=\frac{0}{27}=\mathbf{0}$